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I love a good awards season and yes, this year has produced a very good one.  The Social Network looked on track for an incredible sweep.  It was awarded the best film prize by the critics in Los Angeles, New York, Boston, Chicago, Las Vegas, Florida, Washington DC and Toronto.  It then won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award.

 

I admit to being puzzled.  I really enjoyed The Social Network but why wasn’t more love going to other highly regarded films from 2010?  I speak of The King’s Speech, Inception, Toy Story 3, Winter’s Bone, True Grit, The Fighter, Black Swan and The Kids Are All Right.  These critics organisations seemed to be like “lemmings”.  Could they all possibly have the same tastes?

 

The race started to change last week.  The King’s Speech caused a big upset when it took home the Producer’s Guild Award.  This is an important prize as since it started in 1989, 14 of the 21 winners went on to take the Oscar for best picture.  It’s also significant because it uses the same preferential voting system that the Academy use when deciding best picture.  Just because a film gets the most number 1 votes, doesn’t make it a guaranteed winner.

 

Then came the Academy Award nominations (which I wrote about in last week’s blog).  The King’s Speech was out in front with 12 nominations.  True Grit was next with 10 and The Social Network picked up 8.  I’m not reading too much into the nominations but it does highlight a lot of support for The King’s Speech.  This isn’t a film that’s slipping past people.

 

The most shocking twist in this year’s race came last night when Tom Hooper won the Director’s Guild Award for The King’s Speech.  Not many saw this coming because (1) he’s a relatively new director on the block and (2) The Social Network’s David Fincher has won almost every award so far.  This is the award I look at most closely because 1948, more than 90% have gone on to win the best director Oscar.  The correlation between these two honours is remarkable.  The last time it didn’t happen was in 2002 when Rob Marshall (Chicago) won the Guild and Roman Polanski (The Pianist) won the Oscar.

 

To take it a step further, the film which wins best director at the Oscars often wins best picture.  Since 1957, the film which won best director also won best picture 85% of the time.  Again, that’s a strong correlation.

 

The last piece of the puzzle fitted into place earlier today.  The King’s Speech took out the Screen Actor’s Guild Award for best ensemble.  The awards went as scripted with the 4 favourite actors all getting up – Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale and Melissa Leo.

 

There are often surprises at the Academy Awards but right now, the momentum is with The King’s Speech.  The fact that it’s won the Producer’s Guild Award, the Director’s Guild Award, the Screen Actor’s Guild Award and has received the most nominations is a very strong indicator of its popularity.  I’m not saying I agree with the voters (I thought The Social Network was slightly better) but the numbers don’t lie.  People love The King’s Speech.  We all knew that back in September 2010 when it took the lucrative audience award at the Toronto Film Festival.

 

Can The Social Network still win?  The answer is yes.  Would I bet on it?  The answer is no.

 

The shift towards The King’s Speech has certainly caught raised some eyebrows (to say it politely).  There were many negative comments posted on the Awards Daily forum.  I can best sum up the negativity with this comment from columnist Jeffrey Wells – “Early tomorrow morning the henchmen of Soviet Colonel Dimitri Ilyavich Karger will kick my door in and put me on a train to a Siberian gulag, and I'll go willingly because I know when the jig is up. My spirit is spent. I'm feeling so downhearted I'm wondering if I can even sleep tonight.

 

I realise that people tend to get a bit sensitive when it comes to big film awards.  I was none too pleased when Crash upset Brokeback Mountain in 2005.  Nothing can be done though.  The King’s Speech isn’t the best film of 2010 in my eyes (that honour belongs to Inception) but I won’t be unhappy if it wins… because I now have money on it!

 

Following the win by The King’s Speech at the Director’s Guild Awards, I have pounced and invested some big cash.  One particular sports betting agency in Australia failed to update their odds following Hooper’s win yesterday and so I took the opportunity to pounce.  My bets are for 2011 are:

 

$400 on Hailee Steinfeld to win the Oscar for best supporting actress at odds of $4.

$500 on The King’s Speech to win the Oscar for best picture at odds of $2.

$200 on Tom Hooper to win the Oscar for best director at odds of $3.50.

$50 on the Oscar winner for best actress to be wearing a black dress at odds of $6.

$250 on Tom Hooper to win the BAFTA for best director at odds of $3.

 

Before you ask, I had $50 left in my account which is why I had the bet on Natalie Portman’s (the likely best actress winner) dress.  She’s heavily pregnant and I think a black dress will suit.  We’ll see.

 

As you can see above, the odds for The King’s Speech and Tom Hooper are very juicy indeed.  Centrebet has wound the film into $1.50 for best picture and Tom Hooper into $2.00 for best director.

 

I wagered my bet on Steinfeld a week ago and I think she’s still good value (now out to $7 following Melissa Leo’s win today) in a hard to predict category – best supporting actress.  Melissa Leo is the deserved frontrunner but I’m still worried that her co-star in The Fighter, Amy Adams, might take votes from her.  Given that Steinfeld is the best thing in True Grit and it seems to be well-liked by the Academy (with 10 noms), she’s a decent chance.

 

Like anything, none of the above bets are sure things.  You win some and you lose some.  But if you can keep getting good value (which I think I have based on the above odds), then you should be ahead in the long run.  My total profit on awards betting since 1996 is $3,733 and hopefully that shows I know what I’m talking about.

 

All we can do now is sit and wait.  The Oscars are held on February 27.

 

 

The Academy Award nominations were unveiled at 11:38pm last night (Brisbane time).  I’d have usually posted this blog a lot earlier but I was caught up in an epic poker tournament at a friend’s place and didn’t get home until around 4am.  I then backed up at 8:30am to go through the nominations with Spencer Howson on Brisbane’s number 1 breakfast radio show on 612ABC.

 

You can download a podcast of my spot on 612ABC by clicking here.

 

It seems appropriate that today is Australia Day.  We have three Aussies nominated for acting awards at this year’s Academy Awards.  It’s only the second time in history that this has happened (Geoffrey Rush, Cate Blanchett and Rachel Griffiths were nominated back in 1998).

 

Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech) and Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole) were expected to pick up a nomination but Jackie Weaver’s (Animal Kingdom) inclusion does come as a surprise.  When you consider that the list of nominees is dominated by big name stars in big name films, it’s even more impressive when you consider that Jackie Weaver made the cut. 

 

I couldn’t be happier the 63-year-old Weaver.  She’s been in the industry a long time (winning her first AFI Award way back in 1972) and it’ll be great to see her at the pre-Oscars get-togethers and then during the ceremony itself.  I love an underdog and Weaver is just that.

 

If you’d asked me a week ago which film would win best picture at the Oscars, I’d have said The Social Network with bold confidence.  It had won every major award so far.  That’s not the case anymore.  Last weekend, The King’s Speech nabbed the all important best picture prize as issued by the Producers Guild Of America.  This award has only been around since 1989 but it has a strong correlation with the Oscars – the winning film has claimed the Oscar for best picture 67% of the time.

 

Considering that The King’s Speech also leads the list of Academy Award nominations with 12 and The Social Network only managed to pick up 8, it seems the tide has turned.  If I were a betting man (and I am), I’d say The King’s Speech is now the horse to beat.  A lot more can happen between now and the Oscars but at this point, I’m just happy to see the race “spiced up”.  It was somewhat boring with The Social Network taking home all the gongs.  The critics associations looked like lemmings.

 

The Australian public is also getting behind The King’s Speech.  I realise there’s an Aussie connection in the film but it’s made $15m in this country so far and is still going strong.  The Social Network could only manage $12m during its theatrical run.

 

Let’s get to the nominees in each of the major categories…

 

Best Picture

127 Hours

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter's Bone

 

You may remember that the Academy expanded its list of best picture nominees last year from 5 to 10.  There were no major exclusions but films which hoped to sneak in included The Town and Blue Valentine.

 

As I mentioned above, I see this as a race between The Social Network and The King’s Speech with the later slightly ahead.  There’s an outside chance that one of the other films could spoil (possibly True Grit or The Fighter) under the Academy’s preferential voting system (only used for best picture) so we’ll see.

 

Best Actor In A Leading Role

Javier Bardem for Biutiful

Jeff Bridges for True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network

Colin Firth for The King's Speech

James Franco for 127 Hours

 

Colin Firth should win this in a landslide.  He gave a great performance in A Single Man last year (which also earned him a nomination) and his performance in The King’s Speech has won many awards already.

 

Javier Bardem is the surprise inclusion in the list.  The Academy rarely honours performances in non-English speaking films but he edged out the likes of Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine) and Mark Whalberg (The Fighter) to do so.

 

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right

Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone

Natalie Portman for Black Swan

Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine

 

Natalie Portman will be a red hot favourite in this category.  Annette Bening (who has three previous nominations without a win) is the only danger for her performance in The Kids Are All Right.

 

This list went fairly well as planned.  Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right) is the only omission which might have caught some off guard.  Well done to 20-year-old Jennifer Lawrence who has become the second youngest nominee of all time in this category.  Winter’s Bone was a great film and it’s been recognised by the Academy with 4 nominations.

 

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Christian Bale for The Fighter

John Hawkes for Winter's Bone

Jeremy Renner for The Town

Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech

 

This is an interesting list.  Christian Bale is the favourite but the others in this category will give him a run for his money.  The love for Winter’s Bone continued with a well-deserved nomination for John Hawkes.  The Town was overlooked for a best picture nomination by the Academy still found time to include Jeremy Renner (he was also nominated last year for The Hurt Locker).  I’m a fan of Mark Ruffalo and I enjoyed seeing him pick up his first nomination too.

 

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Amy Adams for The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech

Melissa Leo for The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit

Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom

 

This category will be the most wide open of the night.  All the awards to date have been spread around many of the actresses listed above.  Hailee Steinfeld is just 14 years of age and I could make an argument that she’s favourite.  She’s the best thing in True Grit and the film’s 10 nominations shows great support.  Seeing a young actress nominated in this category isn’t unusual.  In fact, there have been 8 actresses younger than Steinfeld who have been nominated (two went on to win – Tatum O’Neal and Anna Paquin).

 

Melissa Leo gives the “showier” performance in The Fighter but my preference was for Amy Adams.  I worry that votes for these two actresses may be split as they appear in the same film.  I think it opens up the door for Steinfeld and yes, also for Jacki Weaver.  As Animal Kingdom is such a small film, it may hinge on whether Academy members take the time to see it.  I sure hope they do.

 

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan

Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for True Grit

David Fincher for The Social Network

Tom Hooper for The King's Speech

David O. Russell for The Fighter

 

This category produces the biggest surprise for many.  Christopher Nolan was overlooked for his brilliant direction in Inception (my favourite film of 2010).  This stunned me.  I’m not knocking any of the other nominees but Inception was a bold, original project that required such precision from the director.  The risks he took were rewarded by the public who took the film to an international box-office exceeding $800m.  What’s even more surprising is that it was Nolan who was shockingly overlooked two years for The Dark Knight.

 

Congratulations to Darren Aronofsky who has earned his first nomination for best director.  I wasn’t a huge fan of Black Swan but given he directed Requiem For A Dream and The Wrestler, I won’t begrudge him his honour.  David O. Russell picked up his first nomination too.  I’ll always remember him though for his rant on the set of I Heart Huckabees.  You can cheer yourself up by watching it here.

 

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

 

It’s being released in Australia today and it’s nice to see Mike Leigh earn a screenwriting nomination for another year.  Some might question whether he deserves it (given the unorthodox way in which he writes his movies) but give him credit – this is his 5th nomination in this category (and he’s yet to win).  The other 4 films all earned a best picture nomination and I’d expect The King’s Speech to take this.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter's Bone

 

The Social Network should have this one in the bag (the writing from Aaron Sorkin was fantastic) but we’ll see.

 

You can view the full list of nominations at the Oscars site - http://oscar.go.com/

 

The winners will be announced on Monday, February 28 at 11am (Brisbane time).  I’ll be launching my Oscars competition a week before so make sure you study the form and put in an entry!

 

 

Brisbane Floods

 

A lot can happen in a week.  That has certainly been evident here in the city of Brisbane.

 

Last Monday, I went to work, came home and wrote my regular Film Pie blog.  Everything since that time has been anything but ordinary.

 

Like most major events, you never forget where you were when it transpired.  I’d taken the morning off work on Tuesday, 11 January 2011 to see an advance screening of the new Nicole Kidman film Rabbit Hole.  I entered the cinema at 10am and while waiting for the film to commence, I noticed a message in my Twitter feed saying that people in the low lying areas of West End had been told to evacuate.

 

As I left the theatre 90 minutes later, I received a call from a fellow staff member at the University of Queensland advising me that they were leaving the campus due to a risk of flooding.  The staff at Dendy Portside (where I was) were telling patrons to take their cars out of the car park in case the river spilled over.  The seriousness of the situation was sinking in quickly.

 

I live in the Brisbane CBD and there’s a famous photo of when Festival Hall flooded in 1974.  You can view it here.  Considering my apartment building is now on that very spot, this was cause for concern.  I packed a few things and vacated to my mother’s house at Stafford Hts.

 

There wasn’t much to be done over the next few days.  All you could do is sit and wait for the flood waters to arrive.  I love photography so I roamed some of my favourite spots in Brisbane to grab some shots.  You can see them in my Facebook profile and on my Flickr feed by clicking here.

 

I don’t want to sound insensitive to those who have suffered great loss during the Brisbane floods but it has been an interesting “experience”.  We always see stuff on the news and read stories in the paper about natural disasters which have occurred elsewhere in the world.  It’s not until that one turns up on your own doorstep that you have an appreciation for what it’s like and how it affects people.

 

I have only just finished reading a book called The Black Swan (thanks to John Koy for the recommendation) which talks about major events in history, how difficult they are to predict, and the way people react afterwards.  These floods aren’t a true “black swan” in the sense that this has happened before but it still came as a surprise to many.

 

What I witnessed on Friday and Saturday around Brisbane was inspiring.  I walked out to Rosalie to check on the fate of one of my favourite cinemas, the Blue Room Cinebar.  The street was packed with an army of volunteers cleaning out houses and sweeping the mud off the sidewalk.  It brought a tear to my eye.

 

The people of Brisbane had dropped everything and were united behind a common goal – to get our city back on track.  I admit this was hard to reconcile.  These are the same people who at the last Federal election were asking politicians “what’s in it for me?”  These are the same people who post vitriolic comments on news sights slamming everything from Anna Bligh to Oprah Winfrey.

 

They say that a crisis can bring out the best and worst in people.  From my own experience, I now believe that it’s the “best” in the large majority of cases.  My Facebook and Twitter feeds were filled with messages of good will.  Some were volunteering to clean.  Others were donating foods and clothes.  It was amazing stuff.

 

I haven’t had to do any cleaning myself (I asked a few friends but they said they had more than enough help) so my attention has been to my workplace, the University of Queensland at St Lucia.  I’ve spent the last few days working with the disaster recovery team to get the campus re-opened by Thursday.

 

The media coverage has also been great to follow.  My radio has been permanently on 612ABC Brisbane and my television flicking between all the networks that were offering 24 hours news coverage.  Elements were overdramatised (it was like “buzzword bingo” at times) but what these stations did incredibly well was getting important information out to people.  We knew which roads were cut off, we knew how to volunteer and we knew where to get fresh bread.  The images from their high flying helicopters painted a picture of the devastation and helped let us know which areas were badly affected.

 

What of our leaders?  It is my opinion that Lord Mayor Campbell Newman and Premier Anna Bligh have been excellent with their regular updates.  They’ll both receive a deserved boost in the polls for their efforts and I’m curious to see how they’ll perform over the next few months.  It’s only natural that people will start asking the tough questions as life returns to normal.  What can be done to stop this happening again?  What financial assistance will be offered to people who are uninsured?  There’ll be some heated debates ahead.

 

For the record, my own property was marginally affected by the flood.  The water level came to the front steps of the apartment building but no higher.  Unfortunately, this flooded the 4 level basement car park.  They’ve been pumping the water out for 3 straight days and they’re not finished yet.  This has also meant that the lifts are out in the building.  I’m continuing to stay with my mum (it’s nice to be pampered) and hopefully I can return home permanently in a few days.

 

I can be cynical at times but today, I’m proud to say that I live in a great city filled with equally great people.  Well done Brisbane!

 

Golden Globes

 

On a much lesser note, the Golden Globes were held today in Hollywood.  The Globes are probably the second most important awards (following the Screen Actors Guild Awards) in the lead up to the Oscars.  If you can win and make a great speech, it can only boost your chances.

 

Here’s a quick rundown of the major winners in the film categories:

 

Best Film – Drama: The Social Network

Best Film – Comedy/Musical:  The Kids Are All Right

Best Actor – Drama:  Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)

Best Actress – Drama:  Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical:  Paul Giamatti (Barney’s Version)

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical:  Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)

Best Supporting Actor – Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress – Melissa Leo (The Fighter)

Best Director – David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)

 

Sadly, none of the Australians were successful but it’s still great to see four of them nominated.  I’m particularly proud of Jackie Weaver given Animal Kingdom is such a small film relative to those its up against.

 

Ricky Gervais did a decent job as host.  It was as if he was trying to offend as many people as possible.  The highlight for me was seeing Robert Downey Jr on stage presenting an award for best comedy actress.  The guy has a great sense of humour.

 

A big thanks to all those who entered by Golden Globes competition.  I received 59 entries and the winner was Peter Taggart with 5 out of 6.  Peter also nabbed the age of the best film drama presenter – he had a hunch it might be Michael Douglas and so picked 66 as the age.  Well done to Peter.

 

Not far away on 4 out of 6 were Sarah Ward, Michaela Murray and Craig Turton.

 

I’ll be having an even bigger Oscars competition is a few weeks time to stay tuned.

 

As for myself, I lost $300 on Johnny Depp (he didn’t deserve to win so I can’t complain) but picked up $330 on The Social Network.  The net profit of $30 adds to my total tally of award show winnings – now at $3,733 since 1996.

 

Having witnessed the destruction across Brisbane over the past week, the only thing I can do with this cash is donate it to the Premier’s Flood Relief Appeal.  I’m therefore pitching in $930 (representing my initial investment and winnings) towards the Appeal.  Thanks to The Social Network for coming through!  You can donate yourself by clicking here.

 

Next week’s blog will be a late one.  The Academy Award nominations are released on Tuesday, 25 January 2011 at 11:38pm Brisbane time.  I’ll have my comments on the nominees up on my blog about an hour afterwards.  Talk to you then!

 

From a film critic’s perspective, it’s always exciting when a new year begins.  The slate is wiped clean and we can charge ourselves up for what will hopefully be a great line up of releases.

 

2011 marks my 16th year as a critic and I can’t believe how quickly the time has flown.  It seems like only yesterday that I was reviewing Operation Dumbo Drop (my first ever review) at the Sunshine Plaza cinemas.  I’ve chalked up almost 3,000 official gradings in that time and have carved out more than 1,100 full reviews.  I’m only 33 so I there are hopefully many more films to review.

 

2010 Wrap Up

 

Before I close the book on 2010, I do need to quickly reflect from a personal point of view.  I try to advance myself as a critic each year and the past 12 months has been a success in that regard.

 

I obtained accreditation on Rotten Tomatoes as a critic.  This has increased traffic to my website and it’s nice to have my reviewed listed on such a well regarded website.  The highlight was my “first in the world” review of Paranormal Activity 2.  I wrote about it in a blog which you can read here.

 

I had heaps of reviewing the latest movies and DVDs on Spencer Howson’s morning breakfast show on 612ABC Brisbane.  I’ve been a contributor to the show for more than 5 years now but it’s never before has Spencer had such a dominance in the ratings.  He topped the ratings for all but one survey during the year.

 

The success of Spencer’s program has allowed me to interview a few stars and filmmakers during 2010.  I chatted with Mia Wasikowska (Alice In Wonderland), Patricia Clarkson (Cairo Time), Caitlin Stasey (Tomorrow When The War Began), Ryan Kwanten (Red Hill), director Taika Waititi (Boy) and director Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech).  I started up a new section of the website with podcasts and transcripts which you can access here.  Hopefully I’ll have even more interviews to share with you in 2011.

 

A fun night for me was doing an on stage Q&A with Joel Edgerton and Rhada Mitchell and talking about their film The Waiting City in front of a sell out crowd.  I had a few drinks with them before and it was great to hear their perspective on the industry and the films they’ve been working on.  You can check out a photo right here.

 

There were plenty of other highlights too.  I finished my first full year reviewing DVDs (both new and classics) on David Iliffe’s morning radio program for ABC Southern Queensland.  I’ve done a few things to enhance the Film Pie website and I’m getting in a professional soon to help me with it.  I’ve boosted my Twitter following (met some great people too) and given away tickets to films like The Social Network and The King’s Speech.

 

I should finish my mentioning that I took my mother to see a movie.  This may not sound like much but my mother normally hates movies.  I’ve been trying for 15 years to get her to something and finally she relented and saw The King’s Speech with me at the Palace Barracks.  The good news was that she loved it.

 

Golden Globes Betting & Competition

 

The awards season is now in full swing with The Social Network dominating the bulk of the best picture prizes.


The all important Golden Globe Awards are held next Monday Brisbane time and as I do each year, I’ve thrown down a couple of bets - $600 on The Social Network to win best picture at $1.55 and $300 on Johnny Depp (Alice In Wonderland) to win best actor in a comedy/musical at $2.50.  We’ll see how they go.

 

On that note, the time for my annual Golden Globes competition. I have selected 6 of the more wide-open categories (including one from the TV section) and everyone is invited to pick who they think will be the winner. Don’t worry if you’re not sure, guessing may be the best way to go!

In the event of a tie, the winner will be determined using the tie-breaker question below.  You just have to guess the average age of the person who presents the award for best picture - drama.  If two or more people present, an average age will be used.

The one and only prize is a double movie pass to the film of your choice (I'll even try to get you along to a preview if I can).  As an alternative (and this will be useful for those not in Brisbane), I'll buy you the DVD of your choice.

You have until 11am next Monday, 17 January 2011 (Brisbane time) to enter.

 

The online entry form can be accessed on the front page of my website.  Simply go to www.thefilmpie.com.

 

New GOMA Retrospective

 

The Gallery Of Modern Art (GOMA) in Brisbane has put on a few great film retrospectives over the past year.  I can remember checking out one of my all time favourite films, The Ice Storm, around 12 months ago in their Cinémathèque.

 

Well the great news for lovers of cinema is that they have a fantastic new program on over the next two months.  It’s called A New Tomorrow: Visions of the Future in Cinema and “features allegorical and often prescient films which envision possible futures.”

 

The awesome list of films screening include the original Astroboy, 2001: A Space Odyssey, A Clockwork Orange, Mad Max, E.T., Nineteen Eighty Four, The Terminator, Robocop, Total Recall, 12 Monkeys, Gattaca, Dark City, Existenz, The Matrix, A.I., 28 Days Later, V For Vendetta, Children Of Men, The Fountain, District 9, Moon and WALL-E.  Not a bad list, huh?

 

Tickets are just $9 each and the program runs until February 27.  You can find out more by clicking here.

 

 

That’ll do it for my first blog of 2011.  Don’t forget to enter my pick the Golden Globes comp.  You’ve got nothing to lose!  Next week, I’ll talk about the winners and preview the Oscar nominations which are out on January 25.  See ya!