Each year in mid-November, I like to throw to weigh in with a few early Oscar predictions. The “awards season” officially kicks off on December 1 when the New York Film Critics Circle announce their prize winners. They will be followed by a plethora of critics’ awards and then big televised awards (Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild). The three month race will come to a close on 22 February 2015 when the Oscar winners are revealed.
The early analysis seems to suggest a small group of contenders this year. There aren’t too many films likely to surprise on Oscar night (at least according to most bloggers).
Films already released in Australia which will contend for best picture are Boyhood, Gone Girl, Interstellar, Whiplash, Fury and The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Here’s a look at the films (in order of release date) that also have a big shot at securing a best picture nomination. I’ve included a quick blurb from the IMDB to tell you what each is about…
Mr Turner
Release Date: 26 December 2014
Director: Mike Leigh (Secrets & Lies, Topsy-Turvy)
Starring: Timothy Spall, Paul Jesson, Dorothy Atkinson, Lesley Manville, Martin Savage
Plot: An exploration of the last quarter century of the great, if eccentric, British painter J.M.W. Turner's life.
The Imitation Game
Release Date: 1 January 2015
Director: Morten Tyldum (Headhunters)
Starring: Benedict Cumberbatch, Keira Knightley, Matthew Goode, Mark Strong, Charles Dance
Plot: English mathematician and logician, Alan Turing, helps crack the Enigma code during World War II.
Into The Woods
Release Date: 8 January 2015
Director: Rob Marshall (Chicago, Memoirs of a Geisha)
Starring: Anna Kendrick, Meryl Streep, Chris Pine, Johnny Depp, Emily Blunt
Plot: A witch conspires to teach important lessons to various characters of popular children's stories including Little Red Riding Hood, Cinderella, Jack and the Beanstalk and Rapunzel.
Birdman
Release Date: 15 January 2015
Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Babel, 21 Grams)
Starring: Michael Keaton, Zach Galifianakis, Edward Norton, Emma Stone, Naomi Watts, Amy Ryan
Plot: A washed-up actor who once played an iconic superhero must overcome his ego and family trouble as he mounts a Broadway play in a bid to reclaim his past glory.
Unbroken
Release Date: 15 January 2015
Director: Angelina Jolie
Starring: Jack O'Connell, Domhnall Gleeson, Jai Courtney, Garrett Hedlund
Plot: A chronicle of the life of Louis Zamperini, an Olympic runner who was taken prisoner by Japanese forces during World War II.
American Sniper
Release Date: 22 January 2015
Director: Clint Eastwood (Unforgiven, Million Dollar Baby)
Starring: Bradley Cooper, Sienna Miller, Kyle Gallner, Luke Grimes
Plot: A Navy S.E.A.L. recounts his military career, which includes more than 150 confirmed kills.
Wild
Release Date: 22 January 2015
Director: Jean-Marc Vallée (Dallas Buyers Club)
Starring: Reese Witherspoon, Gaby Hoffmann, Laura Dern, Michiel Huisman
Plot: A chronicle of one woman's 1,100-mile solo hike undertaken as a way to recover from a recent catastrophe.
The Theory Of Everything
Release Date: 29 January 2015
Director: James Marsh (Man On Wire)
Starring: Eddie Redmayne, Felicity Jones, David Thewlis, Emily Watson, Simon McBurney
Plot: A look at the relationship between the famous physicist Stephen Hawking and his wife.
Foxcatcher
Release Date: 29 January 2015
Director: Bennett Miller (Capote, Moneyball)
Starring: Steve Carell, Channing Tatum, Mark Ruffalo, Sienna Miller, Vanessa Redgrave
Plot: Wrestler Mark Schultz forms a relationship with his new sponsor, millionaire John du Pont, as they train for the 1988 games in Seoul - a union that leads to unlikely circumstances as both men feel inferior to Mark's revered brother, Dave.
Selma
Release Date: TBA
Director: Ava Marie DuVernay
Starring: David Oyelowo, Carmen Ejogo, Tom Wilkinson, Tim Roth, Oprah Winfrey
Plot: Martin Luther King, Lyndon Baines Johnson and the civil rights marches that changed America.
I’ve been able to see a few of the abovementioned unreleased films and so my predictions for best picture (in order of most likely to win) are 1. Unbroken, 2. Boyhood, 3. The Imitation Game, 4. Birdman, 5. The Theory Of Everything, 6. Gone Girl, 7. Foxcatcher, 8. Selma, 9. Whiplash, 10. American Sniper. I’ve already slipped $100 on Unbroken (at $8 odds) so will be cheering it home.
Of the acting categories, best actor seems to be the most wide open with 4 serious contenders – Michael Keaton (Birdman), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory Of Everything), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) and David Oyelowo (Selma). A really tricky race and I could make a strong argument for all of them to win. I’ve slipped an early $100 on Eddie Redmayne (at $3.50) so I guess he’s my pick at this point.
Julianne Moore has been nominated 4 times previously but is yet to win the coveted Academy Award. Could this finally be her year? She’s the current favourite in the best actress race for the small independent film Still Alice. The biggest danger appears to be Rosamund Pike in the incredibly popular Gone Girl. I’ve long been a fan of Julianne Moore and I’ll stick with her as my pick.
In terms of best supporting actor, I’m a huge fan already of J.K. Simmons in Whiplash (I’ve seen the film twice now) and think he’s a hugely underrated actor. He’ll face competition from the likes of Edward Norton (Birdman), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) and Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher). No way that I’m tipping against J.K. Simmons here. Hope he wins it!
Boyhood is my favourite film of 2014 thus far and so I’m also a supporter of the frontrunner in the best supporting actress race – Patricia Arquette. She’s still looking for her first Academy Award nomination. Her competition will come from Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman) and Laura Dern (Wild). I’ll play it safe here and stick with Patricia Arquette.
Bring on the Oscars!