Matt's Blog
Matt's 2011 Oscars Form Guide: Sweep Or Share?
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- Written by Matthew Toomey
Forget about Christmas. My favourite day of the year has arrived. It’s time for the Academy Awards! They kick off at 11am next Monday morning (Feb 28) Brisbane time. I’ve organised the day off work and will be sitting at home with coke and popcorn. I’ll be tweeting throughout the ceremony so you’ll be able to hear all my ramblings by following my feed – http://twitter.com/icestorm77.
Before I get to my form guide, a few quick things you need to know…
Oscars Competition!
Make sure you enter my 11th annual Pick The Oscars competition.
As I have done for the last 10 years, I have selected 6 of the more wide-open categories below (some trickier than others) and everyone is invited to pick who they think will be the winner.
In the event of a tie, the winner will be determined using the tie-breaker question below. You just have to guess the age of the person who presents the award for best picture. If two or more people present, an average age will be used.
First prize is a $100 voucher at JB Hi Fi. Hopefully you'll be able to use it wisely and buy some great DVDs. Further, I'll invite you and a friend along to the film preview of choice. Second prize is a $50 JB Hi Fi voucher. I'm also offering a "lucky door" prize this year. Another $50 voucher will be up for grabs and the winner will be selected randomly. So don't worry if you think your choices are a little crazy - you can still win!
You can only enter once so think it over and choose carefully. Best of luck!
Now’s the part where you can click here and put in your entry.
Oscars Betting!
I do like to have a bet on the Oscars and this year is no exception. My cumulative profit since 1996 is $3,703.
I had a small win on the Golden Globes (up $30) but then took a hit at the BAFTAs when Tom Hooper lost in a surprise to David Fincher for best director (costing me $250). For full disclosure, here are my bets…
$400 on Hailee Steinfeld to win the Oscar for best supporting actress at odds of $4.
$500 on The King’s Speech to win the Oscar for best picture at odds of $2.
$200 on Tom Hooper to win the Oscar for best director at odds of $3.50.
$200 on The King’s Speech to win the Oscar for best editing at odds of $5.50.
$100 on The King’s Speech to win the Oscar for best cinematography at odds of $5.
$50 on the Oscar winner for best actress to be wearing a black dress at odds of $6.
I’m more confident about some than others. I think they are all good value however. I could lose as much as $1,700 but I could win as much as $3,750. Fingers crossed!
Oscars Form Guide
Before I get to the form guide, there’s one important decision that every Oscar tipster has to make each year – sweep or share.
The way the Oscars works is as follows. When selecting the nominees, only those in the specialist fields get to vote. For example, only the film editors in the Academy choose the nominees for best film editing. Only the actors vote in the acting categories. The only category which is different is best picture – where everyone votes.
When it comes to picking the winner (once the nominees have been chosen), all Academy members vote in every category. I’ve always found this strange (the BAFTAs do it differently) but that’s the system that’s been passed down for decades. What does this mean? Well, some years you get a sweep. If a film is popular amongst Academy members, it can often win in a lot of categories – even if it doesn’t deserve it. They simply tick the box in every category where their favourite film is nominated.
I first experienced this back in 1996. The English Patient picked up 9 Oscars. This included surprise wins in the best supporting actress (Juliette Binoche) and sound categories. Did The English Patient really have better sound that Independence Day, The Rock and Twister? I wasn’t convinced.
Other recent films which have “swept” included Titanic (11 wins from 14 nominations in 1997), The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King (11 wins from 11 nominations in 2003), Slumdog Millionaire (8 wins from 10 nominations in 2008) and The Hurt Locker (6 wins from 9 nominations in 2009).
In contrast, you have years where the awards are “shared” around. Whilst the voting results are never released, I’d say these would be the years when the voting is quite close. It could be a handful of votes (from Academy members making a more informed choice in certain categories) that could affect the outcome.
2004 was perhaps the best example I can think of a shared year. Million Dollar Baby won best picture, best director, best actress (Swank) and best supporting actor (Freeman). The Aviator didn’t win best picture but actually won more awards – it picked up art direction, cinematography, costume design, editing and supporting actress (The Aviator). The other three nominees for best picture all picked up awards. Finding Neverland won best score, Ray won best actor and best sound and Sideways won best adapted screenplay.
The King’s Speech is this year’s frontrunner, albeit a strange one. It didn’t win a single best picture honour from any of the major critics associations. Everyone had written it off until it won the big 3 awards (voted by peers) – the Producer’s Guild, the Director’s Guild and the Screen Actor’s Guild. The fact it has 12 nominations (more than any other film this year) also shows its support.
Now the big question is – will The King’s Speech sweep? Will it win in categories like directing, original score, film editing and cinematography? Or will we see awards shared around amongst other films like The Social Network, Black Swan, The Fighter and Inception.
I’ve given this some thought and I’m going with the sweep! As I said above, it’s won the big 3 lead up awards and dominates the nominations. It is also doing very well at the box-office in the United States (the film has now made more money than The Social Network) and it has such a wide appeal across all age groups. I think it’s timed its run perfectly. I also tipped it as the film to beat in my awards season guide back in November.
On that note, let’s look at the specific categories…
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Most have put this down to a two horse race between The King’s Speech and The Social Network. I think True Grit is the only film which could possibly cause a huge upset (I’m not betting on it though). Only twice since 1989 has a film won both the Producer’s Guild and Director’s Guild awards and gone on to lose best picture - Apollo 13 in 1995 and Saving Private Ryan in 1998. Is it going to be one of those bizarre years? I don’t think so. With 12 nominations under its belt, The King’s Speech has this prize in the bag. Matt’s Pick: The King’s Speech.
Best Achievement in Directing
Black Swan - Darren Aronofsky
The Fighter - David O. Russell
The King's Speech - Tom Hooper
The Social Network - David Fincher
True Grit - Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
This is the most anticipated award of the night for me. David Fincher (The Social Network) has been making great films for years (Seven, Fight Club, The Game, Zodiac) and Academy members tend to take that into consideration. They like to honour those who have paid their dues. Fincher has cleaned up the critic’s awards too. The race went pear shaped when Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech) won the Director’s Guild Award. This is huge because since 1948, more than 90% of the Guild Award winners have gone on to claim the best director Oscar. It’s a remarkable correlation! The last time it didn’t happen was in 2002 when Rob Marshall (Chicago) won the Guild and Roman Polanski (The Pianist) won the Oscar. Many have been critical of Hooper’s Guild win – saying that The King’s Speech is an actors film rather than a directors film. I think that’s a nonsense argument. The reality is that Hooper has made a film which has deeply moved many people. Ok, it doesn’t have flashy special effects and editing but the film didn’t require that. Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech - Tom Hooper.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in Biutiful
Jeff Bridges in True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
Colin Firth in The King's Speech
James Franco in 127 Hours
If Colin Firth loses this, I’ll walk to Perth. He’s won everything in the lead up and Sportsbet are currently offering odds of $1.02. I think it’s good value. Matt’s Pick: Colin Firth in The King's Speech.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine
This race is Natalie Portman’s to lose… and it can be lost. Portman is ridiculously short ($1.03 odds) but Bening looms as a danger. Many think Bening is overdue having narrowly missed taking the award in 1999 and 2004 (for American Beauty and Being Julia). My own personal preference is Nicole Kidman but I’m going with the consensus and will predict Portman. I do hope she wears a black dress in honour of her film. Matt’s Pick: Natalie Portman in Black Swan.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in The Fighter
John Hawkes in Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner in The Town
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech
Here’s another category with a potential upset on the cards. Bale has been in front from the start of the race but the sudden love for The King’s Speech sees Geoffrey Rush move into contention. I do think that Speech will sweep but it will fall just short in this category. Bale has an impressive resume and I think he’s more likely to be chosen than Rush (who already has an Oscar on his mantelpiece). Matt’s Pick: Christian Bale in The Fighter.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech
Melissa Leo in The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom
Aside from best director, this is the other big category that has my attention. It’s a lottery as far as I’m concerned. The only actor I’d rule out would be Jackie Weaver. As great as she was, I think she has no chance. She’s the only nominee from Animal Kingdom and she’s up against 4 actresses who all feature in best picture nominees. That said, this is the category which throws up big upsets. Marcia Gay Harden surprised us all ten years ago when she won for Pollock (without a Golden Globe or Screen Actor’s Guild nomination). Melissa Leo is the favourite but a vulnerable one. As she’s the best thing in True Grit (which itself earned 10 nominations), I think 14 year old Hailee Steinfeld will take this out. Matt’s Pick: Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3 Unkrich
True Grit
Winter's Bone
The best quality of The Social Network was its screenplay and it’s a short priced favourite here. This award will be a big test of its support. I think it deserves the win but it’s up against 4 other best picture nominees that will all have their supporters. Will the older Academy members vote for a film about a social networking site? Do they even know what the internet is? Or will they fall back on a traditional western like True Grit? Matt’s Pick: The Social Network.
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Another quality list but I’d be very surprised if The King’s Speech didn’t win here. Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech.
Best Achievement in Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
This category is more significant than you might think. The winner here often goes on to win best picture. It’s happened 6 times in the last 8 years. Perhaps the reason is that it’s very difficult for the broader Academy to single out the uniqueness of a film’s editing. They can see special effects and they can hear music but it’s very hard to pick up the subtleties of editing. I’ve a strong hunch they just pick their favourite film in this category which is why I think The King’s Speech will take it. I’ve got a bet on it too. Most pundits are tipping The Social Network as it’s they consider it the best in this category and it also won the Eddie Award (voted upon by editors). If weren’t going with the sweep, I’d tip The Social Network but could make a case for any of the films winning. Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
This category is a beauty. Again, I’m going with The King’s Speech on the back of a sweep (I must sound like a broken record by now). However, many have been raving about the cinematography in Black Swan. You can’t forget True Grit either – Roger Deakins has been nominated 8 times previously and is yet to win. Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech.
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit
This is a tricky one too. I’d rule out Alice In Wonderland and Harry Potter on the basis they weren’t highly regarded as films in their own right. True Grit didn’t stand out for me in this category so I see it as a race between the flashy Inception and the subtle King’s Speech. Period pieces do tend to earn more votes and whilst I loved Inception, I’ve got to trust my instinct. Matt’s Pick: Inception.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
It’s nice to see I Am Love get a nomination (one of my top 10 films for 2010) but it won’t win here. Alice In Wonderland is being talked up as a big challenger but my vote is with Speech. As with art direction, period pieces tend to carry more weight in this category. Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech.
Best Achievement in Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
This is a cool list of nominees. For all three films, it’s their only nomination on the night. Who will win? It’s impossible to say. If there was a big film amongst the nominees, it would be a lot easier to choose. Whilst it was hated by many critics, I think The Wolfman is the best chance on the basis it was the more widely seen (looking at the box-office) of the nominees. Matt’s Pick: The Wolfman.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
As a lover of soundtrack, this is one of my favourite categories at the Oscars. I’ve always been a Hans Zimmer fan and I think his music in Inception is part of the reason why I loved it so much. I don’t think it’ll help him this year though. I’ll tip The King’s Speech to edge out The Social Network in this duel. Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Coming Home from Country Strong
I See the Light from Tangled
If I Rise from 127 Hours
We Belong Together from Toy Story 3
Animated films have a strong record in this category so it’s probably a race between Tangled and Toy Story 3. I’ll lean with the best picture nominee – Toy Story 3. Matt’s Pick: We Belong Together from Toy Story 3.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit
I’m going to break with my sweep here and tip Inception in the two sound categories. Loud, action type films have a track record in these categories which makes it a perfect choice. The fact it’s the only nominee in both categories also says a lot. Matt’s Pick: Inception.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
See previous comments. Matt’s Pick: Inception.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
This category appears as easy as best actor. You’d be a brave person to bet against the incredible visuals in Inception. Matt’s Pick: Inception.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Another easy category. Toy Story 3 is a best picture nominee and seems to be loved by everyone. Can’t lose. Matt’s Pick: Toy Story 3.
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Biutiful - Mexico
Dogtooth - Greece
In a Better World - Denmark
Incendies - Canada
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi) - Algeria
If there’s a category which offers regular surprises, this is it. You can’t vote unless you’ve been to special screenings of all five nominees and so this greatly decreases the number of votes in the pool. A film may have a lot of raves but that counts for little in this category. Last year’s upset win by The Secret In Their Eyes (over the more fancied The White Ribbon and A Prophet) is proof of that. Tough to pick but I’ll go win the Golden Globe winner and select Denmark’s entry. Matt’s Pick: In a Better World – Denmark.
Best Documentary, Features
Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
This is another intriguing category which is only voted upon by a smaller pool of Academy members (who have seen them all). You’re guess is as good as mine but I really enjoyed Inside Job so will vote with my heart this time. Matt’s Pick: Inside Job.
Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang
I really am guessing this time. All of these films cover political/social issues so I’ll take stab. Matt’s Pick: Strangers No More.
Best Short Film, Animated
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)
No idea. Matt’s Pick: The Gruffalo.
Best Short Film, Live Action
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143
I’ll be heating up my popcorn at this point in the show but I need something to record as my pick. Matt’s Pick: Wish 143.
Don’t forget to enter my Oscars competition and I look forward to talking about all the winners in next week’s blog!