It’s at this point every year when I put together my awards show preview.
In the three months between December and February, the hunt will be on in earnest for those coveted Oscar statuettes. Whether we like it or not, an Academy Award is the most recognisable honour in the film community. Films nominated get a boost at the box-office and actors nominated can use it to help further their careers.
December is littered with critics awards with the two most important groups being in Los Angeles and New York. Their choices are likely to shape the early markets. By January, we’ll have had the two critical lead up awards – the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. If you’ve got those sitting on your mantelpiece, you’re all but assured of an Academy Award. The last minute lobbying and advertising will take place in February in the lead up to the ceremony itself on 26 February 2012. We can then sit back, relax and do it again in 12 months time.
When I look at “top 10” lists from critics and bloggers across the globe, you see so many worthy choices. There are small films, independent films, foreign films. Sadly, these are almost always overlooked when it comes to the Academy Awards. The big studios campaign hard and have a strong hold over voters. In the end, we’re left with a group of winners and nominees that are fairly predictable. Sure there are a few surprises but it’s not hard to identify what films and performances will be recognised by the Academy.
In my blog from this week last year, I picked 10 films that I thought would be nominated for best picture. I scored 9 out of 10 (choosing Another Year in place of Winter’s Bone). This was before a single critics award had even been announced. My choice for best picture was The King’s Speech and yep, it went on to win. I also included all 4 acting winners amongst my commentary. You can check out that blog by clicking here. I’m not at all trying to gloat (as many other pundits would have had similar picks) but rather I’m trying to emphasise the predictable nature of award season.
On that note, I thought I’d run through the major contenders for this year. Most of the contenders are yet to be released – they are saved for year end so as to be fresh in voters mind.
Those which have already been released that are in with a chance include Midnight In Paris, The Help, Moneyball, The Ides Of March and The Tree Of Life.
I won’t cover those in much detail but rather, I’ll give you a look at the contenders will see in Australian cinemas over the coming months. I’ve provided a brief plot overview from the Internet Movie Database. Here they are…
War Horse
Release Date In Australia: 26 December 2011
Director: Steven Spielberg (Schindler’s List, Saving Private Ryan)
Starring: Tom Hiddleston, David Thewlis, Emily Watson, Eddie Marsan, Jeremy Irvine
Plot Overview Per IMDB: Follows a young man named Albert and his horse, Joey, and how their bond is broken when Joey is sold to the cavalry and sent to the trenches of World War One. Despite being too young to enlist, Albert heads to France to save his friend.
The Iron Lady
Release Date In Australia: 26 December 2011
Director: Phyllida Lloyd (Mamma Mia!)
Starring: Meryl Streep, Jim Broadbent, Richard E. Grant, Olivia Colman
Plot Overview Per IMDB: A look at the life of Margaret Thatcher, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, with a focus on the price she paid for power.
Hugo
Release Date In Australia: 12 January 2012
Director: Martin Scorsese (The Departed, Gangs Of New York)
Starring: Asa Butterfield, Chloe Grace Moretz, Christopher Lee, Ben Kingsley, Sacha Baron Cohen
Plot Overview Per IMDB: Set in 1930s Paris, an orphan who lives in the walls of a train station is wrapped up in a mystery involving his late father and an automaton.
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Release Date In Australia: 12 January 2012
Director: David Fincher (Fight Club, The Social Network)
Starring: Daniel Craig, Rooney Mara, Stellen Skarsgard, Robin Wright, Christopher Plummer
Plot Overview Per IMDB: Journalist Mikael Blomkvist (Craig) is aided in his search for a woman who has been missing for forty years by Lisbeth Salander (Mara), a young computer hacker.
The Descendants
Release Date In Australia: 12 January 2012
Director: Alexander Payne (Election, Sideways)
Starring: George Clooney, Shailene Woodley, Amara Miller
Plot Overview Per IMDB: A land baron tries to re-connect with his two daughters after his wife suffers a boating accident.
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Release Date In Australia: 19 January 2012
Director: Tomas Alfredson (Let The Right One In)
Starring: Gary Oldman, Colin Firth, Tom Hardy, John Hurt, Toby Jones, Mark Strong, Ciaran Hinds
Plot Overview Per IMDB: In the bleak days of the Cold War, espionage veteran George Smiley is forced from semi-retirement to uncover a Soviet agent within MI6's echelons.
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Release Date In Australia: 19 January 2012
Director: Sean Durkin
Starring: Elizabeth Olsen, John Hawkes, Hugh Dancy, Brady Corbet
Plot Overview Per IMDB: Haunted by painful memories and increasing paranoia, a damaged woman struggles to re-assimilate with her family after fleeing an abusive cult.
J. Edgar
Release Date In Australia: 26 January 2012
Director: Clint Eastwood (Unforgiven, Million Dollar Baby)
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Armie Hammer, Naomi Watts, Ed Westwick, Judi Dench
Plot Overview Per IMDB: As the face of law enforcement in America for almost 50 years, J. Edgar Hoover was feared and admired, reviled and revered. But behind closed doors, he held secrets that would have destroyed his image, his career and his life.
Shame
Release Date In Australia: 9 February 2012
Director: Steve McQueen (Hunger)
Starring: Michael Fassbender, Carey Mulligan, James Badge Dale
Plot Overview Per IMDB: In New York City, Brandon's carefully cultivated private life -- which allows him to indulge his sexual addiction -- is disrupted when his sister Cissy arrives unannounced for an indefinite stay.
My Week With Marilyn
Release Date In Australia: 16 February 2012
Director: Simon Curtis
Starring: Michelle Williams, Eddie Redmayne, Kenneth Branagh, Julia Ormond
Plot Overview Per IMDB: Colin Clark, an employee of Sir Laurence Olivier's, documents the tense interaction between Olivier and Marilyn Monroe during production of The Prince and the Showgirl.
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Release Date In Australia: 23 February 2012
Director: Stephen Daldry (Billy Elliot, The Hours, The Reader)
Starring: Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock, Thomas Horn, John Goodman, Viola Davis, Max von Sydow
Plot Overview Per IMDB: A nine-year-old amateur inventor, jewelry designer, astrophysicist, tambourine player, and pacifist searches New York for the lock that matches a mysterious key left by his father when he was killed in the September 11 attacks.
The Artist
Release Date In Australia: TBA
Director: Michel Hazanavicius
Starring: Jean Dujardin, Berenice Bejo, John Goodman
Plot Overview Per IMDB: Hollywood, 1927: As silent movie star George Valentin wonders if the arrival of talking pictures will cause him to fade into oblivion, he sparks with Peppy Miller, a young dancer set for a big break.
This year’s best picture race has been made murky by a rule change – there will now be between 5 and 10 nominees depending on the support level for the top films. This makes it hard for me to give a set list in my predictions. Assuming there could be up to 10, I thought I’d list out my top predictions in order of likelihood…
1. The Descendants, 2. The Artist, 3. War Horse, 4. The Help, 5. Midnight In Paris, 6. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, 7. Moneyball, 8. The Tree Of Life, 9. Hugo, 10. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.
My early pick for best picture is The Descendants – a film I was lucky enough to see at its Toronto Film Festival world premiere. I can’t wait to see it again and it’ll be hard to beat in this year’s race.
In terms of the acting categories…
Best actor is a tricky one this year. George Clooney is wonderful in The Descendants and the Academy may wish to give him a best actor statuette to match his best supporting actor win from a few years ago. However, there are two great actors who are yet to win any Oscars – Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt who will be fighting hard for J Edgar and Moneyball respectively. DiCaprio has been getting raves for his performance (the film not-so-much) but I’m going to go out on a limb and choose Pitt for the win. I think he’s brilliant in Moneyball.
Best actress sees Meryl Streep again in contention and likely to pick up her 17th nomination for The Iron Lady. Viola Davis (The Help) and Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) will give her a run but I think at long last, Streep will finally pick up Oscar number 3.
Best supporting actor is wide open. Many names have been thrown around and we won’t get a clear picture until a few critics awards are announced. Two veterans lead the discussion – Christopher Plummer (Beginners) and Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close). I have to lean towards Plummer at this stage but I’d also love to see Albert Brooks (Drive) in contention.
Best supporting actress sees Octavia Spencer (The Help) well out in front in early markets. Given the huge support for her film, I think she’s a near certainty (a big call I know). Others in this category will need to do some serious campaigning to unseat her.
I’ll be keeping you all updated on the race over the coming weeks through my blog. May the best film win!