Every year in mid-November, I prepare a blog on the season’s major Oscars contenders. Everyone wants to get their hands on the coveted gold statuette but only one film will be considered “worthy” enough by the Academy. The winners over the past 5 years have been The Artist, The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire and No Country For Old Men.
Those new to the Oscars game but wonder how the Oscars are so easy to predict. The reason is that it’s a race very much run like a election. Some heavy-handed campaigning is already underway and it’s only going to become more intense over the next few months. The Academy hosts screenings of many films for its members and the stars/directors turn up to answer questions and put on a good show – to “wow” Academy members even more.
There can be between anywhere between 5 and 10 nominations for best picture at the Oscars. Put simply, if 5% of a Academy members (there are roughly 5,000 of them) give a film their number 1 preference, it’ll earn a best picture nomination.
In last year’s blog (see here), I named 10 films (assuming the Academy would nominate that many). They only nominated 9 and they consisted of my own top 9 predictions. I also named 3 of the 4 acting winners. I’ve mentioned this before but I don’t say this to gloat. There are Oscar pundits who are wiser than myself. I only make the statement to illustrate the often predictable nature of the awards.
Anyway, most Oscar-calibre releases are saved for the end of the year but a few have already been released in cinemas. These include Argo, The Master, Beasts Of The Southern Wild, The Dark Knight Rises, Moonrise Kingdom and The Sessions.
There are heaps of films still to come though and here are those (in order of release) that will have a crack at a best picture slot…
Skyfall
Release Date In Australia: 22 November 2012
Director: Sam Mendes (American Beauty)
Starring: Daniel Craig, Judi Dench, Javier Bardem
Plot Overview Per IMDB: Bond's loyalty to M is tested as her past comes back to haunt her. As MI6 comes under attack, 007 must track down and destroy the threat, no matter how personal the cost.
Les Misérables
Release Date In Australia: 26 December 2012
Director: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
Starring: Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Anne Hathaway, Amanda Seyfried, Helena Bonham Carter
Plot Overview Per IMDB: An adaptation of the successful stage musical based on Victor Hugo's classic novel set in 19th-century France, in which a paroled prisoner named Jean Valjean seeks redemption.
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Release Date In Australia: 26 December 2012
Director: Peter Jackson (The Lord Of The Rings trilogy)
Starring: Martin Freeman, Ian McKellan, Cate Blanchett, Hugo Weaving
Plot Overview: A curious Hobbit, Bilbo Baggins, journeys to the Lonely Mountain with a vigorous group of Dwarves to reclaim a treasure stolen from them by the dragon Smaug.
Life Of Pi
Release Date In Australia: 1 January 2013
Director: Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Starring: Irrfan Khan, Gerard Depardieu, Suraj Sharma, Rafe Spall
Plot Overview Per IMDB: A young man who survives a disaster at sea is hurtled into an epic journey of adventure and discovery. While cast away, he forms an unexpected connection with another survivor ... a fearsome Bengal tiger.
Hitchcock
Release Date In Australia: 10 January 2013
Director: Sacha Gervasi (Anvil: The Story Of Anvil)
Starring: Anthony Hopkins, Helen Mirren, Scarlett Johansson, Danny Huston, Toni Collette
Plot Overview Per IMDB: A love story between influential filmmaker Alfred Hitchcock and wife Alma Reville during the filming of Psycho in 1959.
Lincoln
Release Date In Australia: 17 January 2013
Director: Steven Spielberg (Schindler’s List)
Starring: Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Field, David Strathairn, Joseph Gordon-Levitt
Plot Overview Per IMDB: As the Civil War continues to rage, America's president struggles with continuing carnage on the battlefield and as he fights with many inside his own cabinet on the decision to emancipate the slaves.
Anna Karenina
Release Date In Australia: 17 January 2013
Director: Joe Wright (Atonement)
Starring: Keira Knightley, Jude Law, Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Plot Overview Per IMDB: Set in late-19th-century Russia high-society, the aristocrat Anna Karenina enters into a life-changing affair with the affluent Count Vronsky.
Django Unchained
Release Date In Australia: 24 January 2013
Director: Quentin Tarantino (Pulp Fiction)
Starring: Jamie Foxx, Christoph Waltz, Samuel L. Jackson, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill
Plot Overview Per IMDB: With the help of his mentor, a slave-turned-bounty hunter sets out to rescue his wife from a brutal Mississippi plantation owner.
Silver Linings Playbook
Release Date In Australia: 31 January 2013
Director: David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Starring: Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert DeNiro, Jacki Weaver, Chris Tucker
Plot Overview Per IMDB: After a stint in a mental institution, former teacher Pat Solitano moves back in with his parents and tries to reconcile with his ex-wife. Things get more challenging when Pat meets Tiffany, a mysterious girl with problems of her own.
Flight
Release Date In Australia: 7 February 2012
Director: Robert Zemeckis (Forrest Gump)
Starring: Denzel Washington, Don Cheadle, Kelly Reilly, John Goodman
Plot Overview Per IMDB: An airline pilot saves a flight from crashing, but an investigation into the malfunctions reveals something troubling.
Zero Dark Thirty
Release Date In Australia: TBA
Director: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
Starring: Jessica Chastain, Mark Duplass, Mark Strong, Joel Edgerton, Kyle Chandler
Plot Overview Per IMDB: A chronicle of the decade-long hunt for al-Qaeda terrorist leader Osama bin Laden after the 9/11 attacks, and his death at the hands of the Navy SEAL Team 6 in May, 2011.
Amour
Release Date In Australia: TBA
Director: Michael Haneke (Hidden)
Starring: Jean-Louis Trintiqnant, Emmanuelle Riva, Isabelle Huppert
Plot Overview Per IMDB: Georges and Anne are in their eighties. They are cultivated, retired music teachers. Their daughter, who is also a musician, lives abroad with her family. One day, Anne has an attack. The couple's bond of love is severely tested.
The buzz is that there are four very strong contenders – Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, Les Misérables and Lincoln.
Based on everything I’ve read, my tips in order at this stage would be:
1. Les Misérables, 2. Argo, 3. Lincoln, 4. Silver Linings Playbook, 5. Zero Dark Thirty, 6. The Master, 7. Life Of Pi, 8. Beasts Of The Southern Wild, 9. Flight, 10. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.
Les Misérables is the only one of the “big 4” that is yet to be seen by any critics (well, not that I know of) but I know Hollywood loves a good musical and the trailer gives it the feel of a gorgeously shot epic. Argo is the early favourite with bookmakers based on terrific word of mouth from the public and it’ll be interesting to see if it can hang on.
For best actor, my pick is Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln. His major danger is Joaquin Phoenix in The Master but I think the status of Day-Lewis and the fact that he can make history (by becoming the first 3-time best actor winner) will get him the votes required.
For best actress, I’d love to see Quvenzhane Wallis (who was just 6 years old at the time of shooting) get nominated for Beasts Of The Southern Wild. A win would be truly special. It’s a wide open race this year but the buzz is with the Hollywood “it” girl, Jenifer Lawrence, for her performance in Silver Linings Playbook. She can do no wrong at the moment and an Oscar could be her next achievement.
For best supporting actor, it’s another wide open race. Names being tossed around include Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook), Alan Arkin (Argo) and Russell Crowe (Les Miserables). The thing is that ALL of these people have won before. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained) is the only non-winner to feature in the markets. I’d love to see DiCaprio take home an Oscar but I have to lean towards Philip Seymour Hoffman at this stage.
For best supporting actress, Anne Hathaway is in the driver’s seat and has my vote. She has a beautiful voice and seems perfectly cast in Les Misérables. Names like Helen Hunt, Amy Adams and Sally Field have been thrown into the ring but Hathaway looks the goods.
The Oscars will be held on 24 February 2013 with the nominees revealed on 10 January 2013. We’ll get a better indication of the race though when the nominations for the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards are revealed in mid December. May the best film win… for once!
That’s it from me. There’ll be no blog from be next week as I’ll be on holidays in North Korea and China. I’ll miss a few media previews while I’m away (including The Perks Of Being A Wallflower and Les Misérables) but will be catching up quickly on my return.