Matt's Blog

If the results of this year’s Golden Globes are anything to go by, this year’s Oscars are well and truly up for grabs.  The only certainty is Cate Blanchett for best actress.  They’ve already engraved the statuette.  I said on the ABC last December that I’d walk to Sydney if she lost.  Thankfully I won’t have to follow through on that promise.

I’ve been on a losing streak at the Globes for the past 2 years but thankfully that’s been broken this year.  I backed winners Amy Adams ($100 at $2), Leonardo DiCaprio ($100 at $1.80) and super smokey Matthew McConaughey ($80 at $4.35).  I’m still bummed that Gravity didn’t come through but I’ll happily take the $328 profit.

I’ve decided to roll the dice and go for broke at the Oscars.  Based on their wins today, I’m on Matthew McConaughy for best actor ($200 at $3.50) and Jennifer Lawrence for best supporting actress ($200 at $3).  They’re not sure things but I think the value is great.  Best actor is very open with Chiwetel Ejiofor and Leonardo DiCaprio still well and truly in the race.  Jennifer Lawrence will have to beat off Lupita Nyong’o but her star power might just get her over the line. 

I still think Gravity is a decent shot for best picture at Academy Awards and so I have $300 on Gravity to return $1,450.  I keep coming back to the rule that he who wins best director, wins best picture.  You get the odd year where the rule doesn’t hold up but it doesn’t happen very often.  With Gravity director Alfonso Cuaron looking stronger and stronger in the best director category, I do think the film’s best picture chances are enhanced.  That said, I realise American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave will be tough to beat.

The Oscar nominations are revealed this Thursday night at 11:38pm (Brisbane time) and will be read by Australian Chris Hemsworth.  There’s likely to be a surprise or two and I’m particularly interested in seeing which films make the cut in the best picture category.