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A Roarsome Effort!

 

To quickly move away from my usual film coverage…

 

I’ve only been to a few of the Brisbane Roar games this year (I used to have a season pass) but there was no way I was going to miss the A-League grand final in front of a sold out crowd of just over 50,000 at Suncorp Stadium.

 

The quality of the game was very good and even though it was 0-0 at full time, I wasn’t complaining.  The crowd were right into it too but you could sense their frustration when the Roar got near the goals and felt reluctant to “pull the trigger”.

 

Once the Mariners had gone 2-0 up half-way through the extra time period, the game was over as far as I was concerned.  We were actually debating amongst us how the crowd would react when the final siren blew.  Would they boo the Roar off the ground despite having gone undefeated 27 straight games?  Us Brisbane-ites are fickle supporters after all.

 

Someone at work left early and they said the buses outside were jam packed – that’s how many had actually given up and were on the way home.  I asked a friend why he’d left and he said he just couldn’t stand the suffering.  He didn’t want to be there when the Central Coast players started celebrating.

 

Fiction has to be believable.  Reality doesn’t.  Never has a truer word been spoken.  The Roar go 27 games without defeat and stand 2-0 down in the grand final with less than 4 minutes to go.  As if they could win from there?  What odds were they paying on Betfair?

 

I’ve watched the highlights about 10 times on the Fox Sports website and it still sends a chill down my spine.  The shock of the commentators and the image of Matt McKay looking up at the sky says it all.  The commentators said that fans were streaming back in from outside (those who hadn’t yet jumped on a bus I guess).

 

The shootout was also amazing.  It’s the first one I’ve seen live.  You always had a sense that the Roar would pull it off.  Momentum was on their side.  The crowd went bananas after the two saves and most hung around for the presentation.  A guy sitting in front of us summed it up best – “I’m not going to get drunk tonight. I’m going to get blind.”  Here’s out excited reaction just after the game - http://twitpic.com/492t09.

 

I’m still a sceptic when it comes to the A-League.  I think it’s very hard for a local league in any sport to take a foothold in this country when the best players compete overseas.  It’s like golf.  We struggle to get big names down here and the crowds / sponsors reflect that.  There are many clubs struggling in the A-League but hey, it’s lasted 6 years so far and that isn’t too bad I guess.

 

All I know is that what I witnessed on Sunday night will do the sport no harm.  It was absolutely incredible.

 

Alliance Française French Film Festival

 

The 22nd Alliance Française French Film Festival kicks off in Brisbane on Wednesday night and runs for almost three weeks.  It’s a huge line up with 46 new films in total.  When I saw the list of stars, I was surprised by how many I actually knew.  France does have a great film culture.  You can see films starring Sophie Marceau, Isabelle Huppert, Marion Cotillard, François Cluzet, Catherine Deneuve, Gérard Depardieu, Cécile De France, Jean Reno, Virginie Ledoyen, Audrey Tautou and Kristin Scott Thomas.  That’s a solid list!

 

Here’s a quick look at a few films which have caught my eye…

 

Potiche

 

A captivating new comedy from celebrated director François Ozon, set in the 1970s about a glamorous but neglected housewife who unexpectedly finds herself running the family’s umbrella factory.

 

Little White Lies

 

Each year a couple host a gathering at their beautiful beach house where they commence their summer holidays with a group of close friends. Fun, fine wine and seafood mix with sun and sand as they all leave their city stresses behind. But this year, circumstances change, leading to simmering tensions, which threaten to shatter their idyll.

 

Love Crime

 

Against the sterile backdrop of a powerful multi-national company, two women – a young ingénue assistant and a senior executive - cross swords. At first they are friendly, but when the older woman starts to take credit for her younger colleague’s ideas, the ground is prepared for all-out war and a dangerous game begins to unfold.

 

The Clink Of Ice

 

An alcoholic and misanthropic writer comes face-to-face with a physical manifestation of his own personal suitwearing cancer in this taboo-breaking, intellectual romp from the politically incorrect director, Bertrand Blier.

 

Of Gods And Men

 

Set in the mid-1990s and based on a true story, this film follows a community of French Cistercian monks who live in harmony with the local Muslim population deep in the Algerian mountains until they become a target of Islamist fundamentalist rebels. Panic spreads among the inhabitants. The army offers to protect the monks, but they refuse assistance. Should they leave or remain, and if they stay, what will their decision cost them?

 

You can find out more on the Festival website at http://www.frenchfilmfestival.org/default.aspx.  Tickets are $17.50 for most sessions but there are a few showcase events that cost a little extra (some coming with wine and entertainment).  I’ll hopefully see you there!

 

   

 

Wasted On The Young is an interesting Australian film which was just been released in Australian cinemas.  I saw it at the Brisbane International Film Festival last November and I was excited to see it get a national cinema release in this country.  More than anything, I'm curious to see what the general public will make of it.

The film did leave me with a few questions and so I took the opportunity to speak with the star of the film, Oliver Ackland.  Here’s what he had to say…

 

Matt:  I realise that you’ve been in the business for a little while now but how did you get started as an actor?

 

Oliver:  In high school we had a theatre sports competition.  I knew a few of the older guys who were in the theatre sports team and basically, they needed more to make up the numbers.  I guess I just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time… or the right place at the right time… depending on how you look at it.

 

Matt:  It almost sounds like an accident?

 

Oliver:  Yeah.  It was something that terrified me and that kind of attracted me to it.  I needed to explore it because it scared the shit out of me. 

 

Matt:  If we go forward a few years, you were also the inaugural winner back in the 2009 of the Heath Ledger Scholarship.  Has that really helped you out as an actor?

 

Oliver:  Yeah, it did help.  It was a boost at the right time.  I was broke and couldn’t afford to get over to Los Angeles.  They flew me over, they gave me money and I was able to meet his parents.  It instilled a bit of “fearlessness” in me I think.

 

Matt:  Wasted On The Young is the new movie you’re promoting at the moment.  How did you land this role?

 

Oliver:  It was just through normal channels.  I did an audition and went back in and worked on it with the director.  They brought in other people they had in mind for other roles and we worked through a few of the scenes with the guys.  You walk away, you get back to day-to-day stuff and then after a while, they let you know if it worked out.

 

Matt:  Because one of the things that surprised me is that you’re much older than the high school teenager that you play in the film.  So how did you convince the director that you were able to play the teenager?

 

Oliver:  It’s funny.  A lot of the time, you miss out stuff that is your own age because you look a certain way, you look younger.  Finally, there was one that went in my favour because I did look younger. 

 

Matt:  When I saw this film I realised about half way through that there isn’t a single adult in the entire movie.  The story told entirely from the perspective of these teens.  Can you share with us – what was the director (Ben Lucas) trying to achieve by leaving out the adult angle of the story?

 

Oliver:  He’s trying to say, well, what’s the point of having adults in the film because they have no bearing on what these kids are doing anyway which is a valid point.  They’re in their own bubble.  We did shoot one scene with my character’s mum in the film and that was cut out.  I think it’s a really brave choice.  It leaves some people going “oh, I don’t believe that because there are no parents in the film” but I don’t think Ben ever set out to make a completely realistic kind of film.

 

Matt:  One of the film’s big strengths for me, is that I really hated some of these characters.  I mean that in a good way.  Your step-brother in the film, Zack (played by Alex Russell) – he really gets under your skin and you want to see him get what he deserves.  There’s one scene where you’re beating the living hell out of each other.  Did it get really intense on set during those moments?

 

Oliver:  Yeah, it does.  It’s hard to maintain your cool when you’re doing those scenes.  They yell “action” and you’ve got to go straight into it.  With those scenes, there’s definitely more of a hush around the set.

 

Matt:  Did you have to do a lot of shots with those or can you get it done in one take with the intensity of the moment?

 

Oliver:  We didn’t have much time for anything so most of the scenes were done pretty quickly.

 

Matt:  How long did you get to shoot the film?

 

Oliver:  About 28 days.

 

Matt:  The film paints a pretty bleak view of how tough high school can be for some teenagers and the stupid things that they get up to.  Do you think the film is a reflection of reality?

 

Oliver:  Definitely.  It reflects this “bubble” and this parallel existence that kids live in.  At that age, it does seem like things can be really bleak.  If you’re having problems, it can be really hard to come out the other side.

 

Matt:  Is there something that you hope people can take away from the film?

 

Oliver:  I think you simply want the film to be thought provoking.  You want it to challenge people and for people to go away, taking and arguing.

 

Matt:  A strong theme is the way that the school kids communicate these days through the social networking sites and text messaging.  They’re publishing everything for all and sundry to see.  They can spread lies, perpetuate rumours and cause trouble.  Do you think adults have a full sense of this type of stuff and the way affects some kids today?

 

Oliver:  I don’t think they do because they didn’t grow up with it.  While adults are still using Twitter and Facebook, I don’t think they’re as savvy as the kids are these days.  They’re also using it for completely different reasons.

 

Matt:  What’s it been like promoting the film?  I know you were at the Toronto Film Festival to start with which is pretty cool.  It’s the film festival I’d love to go to above any other.  Was that fun being over there?

 

Oliver:  It was a lot of fun.  It was our first international film festival and it was cool to see the response.  We did Sydney before that and people loved it but in the back of your mind you’re thinking it’s a “home town crowd”.  So it was great to take it overseas and have a really enthusiastic response.  It was a brilliant week with films, bars and restaurants.

 

Matt:  What kind of reaction did you get from the audience over there?

 

Oliver:  Really positive.  They all stuck around and asked interesting questions.  It had obviously got under their skin because the Q&A went on for a bit.

 

Matt:  I’m finish up by asking what’s next?  What have you got in the pipeline Oliver?

 

Oliver:  I did a little bit on Cloudstreet which is coming out soon.  I also just finished up working on The Slap (a new TV series) in Melbourne.

 

Matt:  Thanks for speaking with me!

 

You can read my review of the film by clicking here.

 

    

Think of the Comic Book Guy from The Simpsons and say out loud “worst Oscars ever!”  I’m trying not to be sensationalistic but that seems to be the general consensus within the online film community.  The world’s leading film critic, Roger Ebert, had this to say on Twitter – “The worst Oscarcast I've seen, and I go back awhile. Some great winners, a nice distribution of awards, but the show? Dead. In. The. Water.

 

I couldn’t agree more.  There were some nice touches to the ceremony.  It was great to see them reflect back on some of the films which have dominated the Oscars.  A good example was the opening award of the night – art direction and cinematography – which were dished out my Tom Hanks.  There was a nice tribute to Titanic snuck in.

 

You can see that great efforts were made to reduce the running time of the ceremony.  The final product was just over 3 hours which makes it one of the shortest in recent memory.  They moved quickly from award to award and got rid of unnecessary tributes and dance numbers.  I also think this is a positive.

 

All of that said, new hosts James Franco and Anne Hathaway were a failure.  I liked their spoof opening (where they inserted themselves in a series of best picture nominees) but from then on in, it was dreadful.  Some are speculating that Franco was “stoned”.  That might explain his apparent disinterest in the ceremony.  Hathaway was trying to give it a kick but she had no material to work with.  A dance number where she poked fun at Hugh Jackman was simply awful.  Who wrote that dribble?  I could say the same for their opening speech where they say hello to their mother / grandmother in the crowd.

 

It’s as if the producers of the show were playing it too safe.  They wanted to avoid a Ricky Gervais like backlash and so they took no chances.  All the humour was G-rated and there was hardly any controversy.

 

As has been the case with a lot of other recent Oscars, there was a noticeable lack of surprises.  Tom Hooper winning best director and Inception stealing cinematography were probably the biggest upsets of the night (and that’s not saying much).  It’s nice to see the right people win but you’re always hoping there’ll be a big “shocker” to catch people off guard.  The speeches were also fairly drab.  I don’t think any will be going down in the history books.  I’m sure some will talk about Melissa Leo’s poorly timed “f bomb”.  I didn’t like her speech at all.

 

The highlight for me might have been seeing Kirk Douglas present the best supporting actress Oscar.  Yes, I realise it was hard to make out everything he was saying but I’m more than prepared to cut him some slack.  To see a 94 year old (who also suffered a stroke 15 years ago) on stage was a magical moment.  He must be one of the oldest, if not the oldest, presenters in history.  Despite being 80 years older than one of the nominees, he still showed he had a great sense of humour.  I couldn’t help but smile as he strung out the announcement of the winner.

 

I didn’t end up watching the ceremony at home as planned.  I was invited to follow it at the 612ABC studios at Toowong and I was on air providing regular updates with host Richard Fidler.  It was a fun afternoon.  Here’s a photo of the view I had – watching whilst Tweeting – click here.  I also chatted with Spencer Howson in the morning for my special preview and you can listen to the podcast by clicking here.

 

Oscar Betting

 

It was a wild ride for me in terms of my Oscar bets.  I had a record $1,450 “invested” in this year’s ceremony and things were looking awfully grim half way through the ceremony.  I had gone for a few roughies and they were all defeated.

 

Miraculously, Tom Hooper’s best director win and The King’s Speech best picture win saved the night for me.  I finished up $250 which can be offset against my $250 BAFTA loss and my $30 Golden Globes win.  All in all, the net profit for the season was $30.  Could have been a lot better, could have been a lot worse.  I can’t complain.  Here’s my cumulative scoreboard…

 

1996 – profit of $750 – won on Susan Saranadon

1997 – profit of $300 (cumulative profit $1,050) – won on Frances McDormand

1998 – loss of $250 (cumulative profit $800)

1999 – loss of $250 (cumulative profit $550)

2000 – profit of $620 (cumulative profit $1,170) – won on Kevin Spacey and Michael Caine

2001 – loss of $190 (cumulative profit $980) – won on director Steven Soderbergh

2002 – profit of $480 (cumulative profit $1,460) – won on Halle Berry

2003 – profit of $275 (cumulative profit $1,735) – won on Catherine Zeta-Jones and Adrian Brody

2004 – profit of $150 (cumulative profit $1,875) – won on Sean Penn

2005 – profit of $214 (cumulative profit $2,089) – won on Hilary Swank

2006 – profit of $350 (cumulative profit $2,439) – won on Reese Witherspoon

2007 – profit of $1,463 (cumulative profit $3,912) – won on Eddie Murphy at Globes, Alan Arkin & West Bank Story at Oscars

2008 – profit of $268 (cumulative profit of $4,280) – won on Tilda Swinton and the Coen brothers

2009 – profit of $253 (cumulative profit of $4,533) – won on Mickey Rourke & Kate Winslet at Globes, Kate Winslet at Oscars

2010 – loss of $830 (cumulative profit of $3,703)

2011 – profit of $30 (cumulative profit of $3,733) – won on Social Network at Globes, Tom Hooper & King’s Speech at Oscars

 

I’m up $3,733 in career earnings and I’ll be aiming for a better effort next year.  I’ll be studying the form in the meantime.

 

It’s funny that although I preferred The Social Network, I found myself rooting more and more for The King’s Speech as the Oscars season wound down.  I got tired of The Social Network winning every award.  I got tired of Oscar pundits thinking The Social Network had a god given right to win the best picture prize.

 

To those who think the wins of Tom Hooper and The King’s Speech are a tragedy, I say boo-f***ing-hoo.  It may not have the originality of films like Inception, The Social Network and Black Swan but it has moved audiences.  So many have told me how much they liked it.  Just look at its exceptional box-office takings.  It has over $20m in Australia and over $100m in the United States.  Whether you like or not, the fact remains that people have enjoyed it immensely.  It is far from the worst Oscar winner in history (which some have described it as).

 

I can also now say that I’ve interviewed an Academy Award winning director!  I spoke with Tom Hooper back in December and you can check out my interview right here.

 

Oscar Competition

 

A record number of 95 people entered my 11th annual Oscars competition.  Thanks to everyone for having a go.  You’ll be happy to know that not a single person scored 0 out of 6.  You all got at least one right.

 

The toughest category was best supporting actress.  Just 29 out of 95 picked Melissa Leo.  The easiest category proved to be best picture with 77 out of 95 going with The King’s Speech.

 

For the record, the winners for the 6 categories in my competition were…

 

Best Picture – The King’s Speech

Best Director – Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)

Best Supporting Actress – Melissa Leo (The Fighter)

Best Original Score – The Social Network

Best Cinematography – Inception

Best Documentary – Inside Job

 

For only the second time in my competition’s history, we had someone finish on a perfect score.  Despite the awards being shared around between several films, Solo Fogg managed 6 from 6.  A fantastic effort!  He wins a $100 voucher from JB Hi-Fi and I’ll get him and a guest along to the film preview of his choice.

 

We had two tied for 2nd place with 5 out of 6.  The runner’s up prize therefore went to Brian Bedard who was the closest with the tie-breaker.  The age of the best picture presenter was 64 (Señor Spielbergo) and Brian was closest with his guess of 60.  He wins a $50 voucher from JB Hi-Fi for his solid work.  The other entrant to finish with 5 out of 6 was Steve Eltis.

 

There were plenty on 4 out of 6 and they were Tina Hill, Simon Shaw, Shannon Saxby, Sarah Case, Prue Martin, Preston Towers, Nick Josey, Michaela Murray, Kat Healey, Judi Jabour, Ian Kilner, David Richard, Chris Hassall and Andreas Moutsatsos.

 

You’ll notice my name isn’t amongst the list.  I could only manage 3 out of 6 in my own competition.  In all, I finished with 16 out of 24.  I lost many of the technical categories as I took a punt in that The King’s Speech might sweep the night.  I was wrong.

 

I had an extra lucky entrant prize this year which was selected using a random Excel spreadsheet thingy.  That lucky person was Deborah Carmichael who also picked up a $50 JB Hi-Fi voucher.  I’ll be in touch with all the prize winners soon.

 

Oscar Winners

 

The awards were generally shared around this year.  The King’s Speech and Inception finished with 4 wins.  The Social Network was close behind with 3.  The Fighter, Toy Story 3 and Alice In Wonderland each nabbed 2.  Black Swan, The Wolfman and Inside Job were the other feature films to pick up single awards.

 

We had four Australians take home Oscars which was fantastic to see.  Kirk Baxter won best editing for The Social Network.  Dave Elsey won best makeup for The Wolfman.  Shaun Tan won best animated short film for The Lost Thing.  Emile Sherman was one of the producers who shared in the best picture win of The King’s Speech.

 

None of the Aussie actors were able to take away a golden statuette but it was still great to see them nominated.  It must have been an even bigger thrill for first time nominee Jacki Weaver and I hope it opens up many doors for her in Hollywood.

 

Here’s a quick rundown of the big winners…

 

Best Picture – The King’s Speech

Best Director – Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)

Best Actor – Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)

Best Actress – Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Best Supporting Actor – Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress – Melissa Leo (The Fighter)

Best Original Screenplay – The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay – The Social Network

Best Animated Film – Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Language Film – In A Better World

 

Well, we’re done for another year.  I’m sure the major wins and losses will be dissected by many on the internet over the next few days.  It’s now time to get back to reality and focus on the 2011 crop of releases.  Which film will take the Oscar for best picture this time next year?  I’m not sure at the moment but I do hope I have money on it. :)

 
Forget about Christmas.  My favourite day of the year has arrived.  It’s time for the Academy Awards!  They kick off at 11am next Monday morning (Feb 28) Brisbane time.  I’ve organised the day off work and will be sitting at home with coke and popcorn.  I’ll be tweeting throughout the ceremony so you’ll be able to hear all my ramblings by following my feed – http://twitter.com/icestorm77.
 
Before I get to my form guide, a few quick things you need to know…
 
Oscars Competition!
 
Make sure you enter my 11th annual Pick The Oscars competition.
 
As I have done for the last 10 years, I have selected 6 of the more wide-open categories below (some trickier than others) and everyone is invited to pick who they think will be the winner.

In the event of a tie, the winner will be determined using the tie-breaker question below. You just have to guess the age of the person who presents the award for best picture. If two or more people present, an average age will be used.

First prize is a $100 voucher at JB Hi Fi. Hopefully you'll be able to use it wisely and buy some great DVDs. Further, I'll invite you and a friend along to the film preview of choice. Second prize is a $50 JB Hi Fi voucher. I'm also offering a "lucky door" prize this year. Another $50 voucher will be up for grabs and the winner will be selected randomly. So don't worry if you think your choices are a little crazy - you can still win!

You can only enter once so think it over and choose carefully. Best of luck!
 
Now’s the part where you can click here and put in your entry.
 
Oscars Betting!
 
I do like to have a bet on the Oscars and this year is no exception.  My cumulative profit since 1996 is $3,703.
 
I had a small win on the Golden Globes (up $30) but then took a hit at the BAFTAs when Tom Hooper lost in a surprise to David Fincher for best director (costing me $250).  For full disclosure, here are my bets…
 
$400 on Hailee Steinfeld to win the Oscar for best supporting actress at odds of $4.
$500 on The King’s Speech to win the Oscar for best picture at odds of $2.
$200 on Tom Hooper to win the Oscar for best director at odds of $3.50.
$200 on The King’s Speech to win the Oscar for best editing at odds of $5.50.
$100 on The King’s Speech to win the Oscar for best cinematography at odds of $5.
$50 on the Oscar winner for best actress to be wearing a black dress at odds of $6.
 
I’m more confident about some than others.  I think they are all good value however.  I could lose as much as $1,700 but I could win as much as $3,750.  Fingers crossed!
 
Oscars Form Guide
 
Before I get to the form guide, there’s one important decision that every Oscar tipster has to make each year – sweep or share.
 
The way the Oscars works is as follows.  When selecting the nominees, only those in the specialist fields get to vote.  For example, only the film editors in the Academy choose the nominees for best film editing.  Only the actors vote in the acting categories.  The only category which is different is best picture – where everyone votes.
 
When it comes to picking the winner (once the nominees have been chosen), all Academy members vote in every category.  I’ve always found this strange (the BAFTAs do it differently) but that’s the system that’s been passed down for decades.  What does this mean?  Well, some years you get a sweep.  If a film is popular amongst Academy members, it can often win in a lot of categories – even if it doesn’t deserve it.  They simply tick the box in every category where their favourite film is nominated.
 
I first experienced this back in 1996.  The English Patient picked up 9 Oscars.  This included surprise wins in the best supporting actress (Juliette Binoche) and sound categories.  Did The English Patient really have better sound that Independence Day, The Rock and Twister?  I wasn’t convinced.
 
Other recent films which have “swept” included Titanic (11 wins from 14 nominations in 1997), The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King (11 wins from 11 nominations in 2003), Slumdog Millionaire (8 wins from 10 nominations in 2008) and The Hurt Locker (6 wins from 9 nominations in 2009).
 
In contrast, you have years where the awards are “shared” around.  Whilst the voting results are never released, I’d say these would be the years when the voting is quite close.  It could be a handful of votes (from Academy members making a more informed choice in certain categories) that could affect the outcome.
 
2004 was perhaps the best example I can think of a shared year.  Million Dollar Baby won best picture, best director, best actress (Swank) and best supporting actor (Freeman).  The Aviator didn’t win best picture but actually won more awards – it picked up art direction, cinematography, costume design, editing and supporting actress (The Aviator).  The other three nominees for best picture all picked up awards.  Finding Neverland won best score, Ray won best actor and best sound and Sideways won best adapted screenplay.
 
The King’s Speech is this year’s frontrunner, albeit a strange one.  It didn’t win a single best picture honour from any of the major critics associations.  Everyone had written it off until it won the big 3 awards (voted by peers) – the Producer’s Guild, the Director’s Guild and the Screen Actor’s Guild.  The fact it has 12 nominations (more than any other film this year) also shows its support.
 
Now the big question is – will The King’s Speech sweep?  Will it win in categories like directing, original score, film editing and cinematography?  Or will we see awards shared around amongst other films like The Social Network, Black Swan, The Fighter and Inception.
 
I’ve given this some thought and I’m going with the sweep!  As I said above, it’s won the big 3 lead up awards and dominates the nominations.  It is also doing very well at the box-office in the United States (the film has now made more money than The Social Network) and it has such a wide appeal across all age groups.  I think it’s timed its run perfectly.  I also tipped it as the film to beat in my awards season guide back in November.
 
On that note, let’s look at the specific categories…
 
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
 
Most have put this down to a two horse race between The King’s Speech and The Social Network.  I think True Grit is the only film which could possibly cause a huge upset (I’m not betting on it though).  Only twice since 1989 has a film won both the Producer’s Guild and Director’s Guild awards and gone on to lose best picture - Apollo 13 in 1995 and Saving Private Ryan in 1998.  Is it going to be one of those bizarre years?  I don’t think so.  With 12 nominations under its belt, The King’s Speech has this prize in the bag.  Matt’s Pick: The King’s Speech.
 
Best Achievement in Directing

Black Swan - Darren Aronofsky
The Fighter - David O. Russell
The King's Speech - Tom Hooper
The Social Network - David Fincher
True Grit - Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
 
This is the most anticipated award of the night for me.  David Fincher (The Social Network) has been making great films for years (Seven, Fight Club, The Game, Zodiac) and Academy members tend to take that into consideration.  They like to honour those who have paid their dues.  Fincher has cleaned up the critic’s awards too.  The race went pear shaped when Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech) won the Director’s Guild Award.  This is huge because since 1948, more than 90% of the Guild Award winners have gone on to claim the best director Oscar.  It’s a remarkable correlation!  The last time it didn’t happen was in 2002 when Rob Marshall (Chicago) won the Guild and Roman Polanski (The Pianist) won the Oscar.  Many have been critical of Hooper’s Guild win – saying that The King’s Speech is an actors film rather than a directors film.  I think that’s a nonsense argument.  The reality is that Hooper has made a film which has deeply moved many people.  Ok, it doesn’t have flashy special effects and editing but the film didn’t require that.  Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech - Tom Hooper.
 
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in Biutiful
Jeff Bridges in True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
Colin Firth in The King's Speech
James Franco in 127 Hours
 
If Colin Firth loses this, I’ll walk to Perth.  He’s won everything in the lead up and Sportsbet are currently offering odds of $1.02.  I think it’s good value.  Matt’s Pick: Colin Firth in The King's Speech.
 
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine
 
This race is Natalie Portman’s to lose… and it can be lost.  Portman is ridiculously short ($1.03 odds) but Bening looms as a danger.  Many think Bening is overdue having narrowly missed taking the award in 1999 and 2004 (for American Beauty and Being Julia).  My own personal preference is Nicole Kidman but I’m going with the consensus and will predict Portman.  I do hope she wears a black dress in honour of her film.  Matt’s Pick: Natalie Portman in Black Swan.
 
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in The Fighter
John Hawkes in Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner in The Town
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech
 
Here’s another category with a potential upset on the cards.  Bale has been in front from the start of the race but the sudden love for The King’s Speech sees Geoffrey Rush move into contention.  I do think that Speech will sweep but it will fall just short in this category.  Bale has an impressive resume and I think he’s more likely to be chosen than Rush (who already has an Oscar on his mantelpiece).  Matt’s Pick: Christian Bale in The Fighter.
 
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech
Melissa Leo in The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom
 
Aside from best director, this is the other big category that has my attention.  It’s a lottery as far as I’m concerned.  The only actor I’d rule out would be Jackie Weaver.  As great as she was, I think she has no chance.  She’s the only nominee from Animal Kingdom and she’s up against 4 actresses who all feature in best picture nominees.  That said, this is the category which throws up big upsets.  Marcia Gay Harden surprised us all ten years ago when she won for Pollock (without a Golden Globe or Screen Actor’s Guild nomination).  Melissa Leo is the favourite but a vulnerable one.  As she’s the best thing in True Grit (which itself earned 10 nominations), I think 14 year old Hailee Steinfeld will take this out.  Matt’s Pick: Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit.
 
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3 Unkrich
True Grit
Winter's Bone
 
The best quality of The Social Network was its screenplay and it’s a short priced favourite here.  This award will be a big test of its support.  I think it deserves the win but it’s up against 4 other best picture nominees that will all have their supporters.  Will the older Academy members vote for a film about a social networking site?  Do they even know what the internet is?  Or will they fall back on a traditional western like True Grit?  Matt’s Pick: The Social Network.
 
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
 
Another quality list but I’d be very surprised if The King’s Speech didn’t win here.  Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech.
 
Best Achievement in Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
 
This category is more significant than you might think.  The winner here often goes on to win best picture.  It’s happened 6 times in the last 8 years.  Perhaps the reason is that it’s very difficult for the broader Academy to single out the uniqueness of a film’s editing.  They can see special effects and they can hear music but it’s very hard to pick up the subtleties of editing.  I’ve a strong hunch they just pick their favourite film in this category which is why I think The King’s Speech will take it.  I’ve got a bet on it too.  Most pundits are tipping The Social Network as it’s they consider it the best in this category and it also won the Eddie Award (voted upon by editors).  If weren’t going with the sweep, I’d tip The Social Network but could make a case for any of the films winning.  Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech.
 
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
 
This category is a beauty.  Again, I’m going with The King’s Speech on the back of a sweep (I must sound like a broken record by now).  However, many have been raving about the cinematography in Black Swan.  You can’t forget True Grit either – Roger Deakins has been nominated 8 times previously and is yet to win.  Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech.
 
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

This is a tricky one too.  I’d rule out Alice In Wonderland and Harry Potter on the basis they weren’t highly regarded as films in their own right.  True Grit didn’t stand out for me in this category so I see it as a race between the flashy Inception and the subtle King’s Speech.  Period pieces do tend to earn more votes and whilst I loved Inception, I’ve got to trust my instinct.  Matt’s Pick: Inception.
 
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
 
It’s nice to see I Am Love get a nomination (one of my top 10 films for 2010) but it won’t win here.  Alice In Wonderland is being talked up as a big challenger but my vote is with Speech.  As with art direction, period pieces tend to carry more weight in this category.  Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech.
 
Best Achievement in Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
 
This is a cool list of nominees.  For all three films, it’s their only nomination on the night.  Who will win?  It’s impossible to say.  If there was a big film amongst the nominees, it would be a lot easier to choose.  Whilst it was hated by many critics, I think The Wolfman is the best chance on the basis it was the more widely seen (looking at the box-office) of the nominees.  Matt’s Pick: The Wolfman.
 
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
 
As a lover of soundtrack, this is one of my favourite categories at the Oscars.  I’ve always been a Hans Zimmer fan and I think his music in Inception is part of the reason why I loved it so much.  I don’t think it’ll help him this year though.  I’ll tip The King’s Speech to edge out The Social Network in this duel.  Matt’s Pick: The King's Speech.
 
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Coming Home from Country Strong
I See the Light from Tangled
If I Rise from 127 Hours
We Belong Together from Toy Story 3
 
Animated films have a strong record in this category so it’s probably a race between Tangled and Toy Story 3.  I’ll lean with the best picture nominee – Toy Story 3.  Matt’s Pick: We Belong Together from Toy Story 3.
 
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit
 
I’m going to break with my sweep here and tip Inception in the two sound categories.  Loud, action type films have a track record in these categories which makes it a perfect choice.  The fact it’s the only nominee in both categories also says a lot.  Matt’s Pick: Inception.
 
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
 
See previous comments.  Matt’s Pick: Inception.
 
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
 
This category appears as easy as best actor.  You’d be a brave person to bet against the incredible visuals in Inception.  Matt’s Pick: Inception.
 
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
 
Another easy category.  Toy Story 3 is a best picture nominee and seems to be loved by everyone.  Can’t lose.  Matt’s Pick: Toy Story 3.
 
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Biutiful - Mexico
Dogtooth - Greece
In a Better World - Denmark
Incendies - Canada
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi) - Algeria
 
If there’s a category which offers regular surprises, this is it.  You can’t vote unless you’ve been to special screenings of all five nominees and so this greatly decreases the number of votes in the pool.  A film may have a lot of raves but that counts for little in this category.  Last year’s upset win by The Secret In Their Eyes (over the more fancied The White Ribbon and A Prophet) is proof of that. Tough to pick but I’ll go win the Golden Globe winner and select Denmark’s entry.  Matt’s Pick: In a Better World – Denmark.
 
Best Documentary, Features
Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
 
This is another intriguing category which is only voted upon by a smaller pool of Academy members (who have seen them all).  You’re guess is as good as mine but I really enjoyed Inside Job so will vote with my heart this time.  Matt’s Pick: Inside Job.
 
Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang
 
I really am guessing this time.  All of these films cover political/social issues so I’ll take stab.  Matt’s Pick: Strangers No More.
 
Best Short Film, Animated
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)
 
No idea.  Matt’s Pick: The Gruffalo.
 
Best Short Film, Live Action
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143
 
I’ll be heating up my popcorn at this point in the show but I need something to record as my pick.  Matt’s Pick: Wish 143.
 
Don’t forget to enter my Oscars competition and I look forward to talking about all the winners in next week’s blog!